Excellent analysis of climate change and its causes
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Henrik Svensmark, director of the Centre of Sun-Climate Research at the Danish National Space Centre, and Nigel Calder, the well-known science writer, have produced a challenging book on climate change.
When stars die, they do so in supernova explosions that emit cosmic rays, which create ions, which form clouds. Low clouds - less than 3000 metres above the surface - keep the planet cool. The less active the sun is, the more cosmic rays get through to the earth, and so the more clouds there are to cool the earth.
The Danish National Space Centre's SKY experiment showed how cosmic rays set free electrons which then catalysed the clubbing together of sulphuric acid molecules, the most important source of condensation nuclei. These cosmic rays have varied since the world began; their influx depends largely on where the earth is in the galaxy in our orbit around the centre of the Milky Way. When the earth is in dark regions with few stars where the rays are scarce, the climate is warm. When the earth is in bright regions where the rays are intense, the climate is cool.
The medieval warm period of 1000-1300 was followed by the cool periods of 1300-60 and 1450-1540, and a worse one, the little ice age of 1645-1715, then another cool period in 1790-1820. The peak of the little ice age was 1700, which coincided with the Maunder Minimum, when the sun's magnetic activity was very low, reducing its ability to shield the earth from cosmic rays.
In the last century, the sun's magnetic field doubled in strength, reducing the cosmic rays and so the clouds, thus heating up the earth by 0.70C from 1900 to 2005, 70% of the 20th century's warming. The authors predict that global warming in this century is likely to be at the low end of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's forecast of a 1.80C-40C rise by 2100.
Indeed, temperatures have not risen since 2001, even though global CO2 emissions have been rising faster than ever. Also, the Antarctic's area of sea ice grew by 8% between 1978 and 2005.
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The open minded will thoroughly enjoy this...
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NOTE: There are two editions of this book, buy the later oneThe Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate published in February 2008, it has been updated with a large new chapter at the back which brings you upto date, and is important.
Svensmark's theory finally offers a highly attractive alternative to the traditional GHG forcing model. It's neat, tight, not at all messy, rather elegant infact. `The Chilling Stars' takes you behind the dry published research paper's in far more detail, and allows you to engage with the excitement and wonder as a new scientific theory takes shape.
I've been following the AGW debate for some time, firstly as a supporter of AGW and then slowly moving towards a more sceptical stance. This year (2008) I've spent a lot of time reading the various research papers to get behind the media hype of both sides. What stands out is the relatively messy theory behind the idea of AGW, it's certainly not proven, it's just the best theory science had to date to explain the forcing seen. The GCR/Climate link just kept popping up in my research, as did Svensmark's name. Despite the rubbishing of his work, his hypothesis on paper looks sound to me. It's clearly upset a lot of people, more so because of the politically sensitive subject that Co2 has become.
We will know if Svensmark is really on the right track when the CLOUD project at CERN start's producing data in 2010. Although the cercumstantial evidence is continuing to pile up in his favour.
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The Climate Is Changing!
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Ever thought that maybe, just maybe the climate might not stay exactly as it is today? Ever thought that because you were told about ice ages at school that climate change happens? Ever thought that scientific pronouncements should be evidence based? If the answer to the latter is 'no' then you are probably an environmentalist, so this book will not interest you. If you want to know something and want it proven then you are ahead of our (current) Royal Society, as they would doubtless want to burn this book. The sun and water vapour are the main agents in our climate. Certainly not Man. And that is a fact; carbon emissions are not and never have (natural or human -which now counts as unnatural) been a main agent of change in our climate. Despite Al Gore believing he is possessed of an infallable dogma, the inconvenient fact is that recent cooling and increased emissions breaks his unassailable link. This book gives a possible explanation of what is happening to our planet's weather. It suggests, it doesn't shout. It looks for proof. How refreshing is that?
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Refreshingly scientific
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Written by the master of popular science writing Nigel Calder, this book offers a very accessible introduction to cosmoclimatology and will not leave one stone unturned in the search for scientifically consistent theories and explanations.
Based on the research done by Danish scientist Henrik Svensmark, this book is worth a read - don't be misled by reviewers who attack the messenger without having read the message.
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Questionable!
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Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder (ex. New Scientist editor) attempt to dispel years of work of climatologists by 'proving' a correlation between cosmic rays and global warming, effectively claiming the effects of Carbon Dioxide and Methane are negligible.
Although an interesting read which made me think a lot about climate change from a proposed 'new light', Chilling Stars, on further research from organisations such as the IPCC and RealClimate, turned out to be a disappointing hoax playing on the media frenzy of denying anthropogenically driven climate change and global warming. This book is wholly irresponsible, viewed by the world's leading climatologists as misleading the public by false information from a non-peer-reviewed publication.
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